Reviewed July 24, 2026 · based on the July 17 draft

The Rose Quarter Public Balance Sheet

Every asset, stream, and right in the Moda Center deal — priced, badged, and assigned as the July 17 draft directs.

How these numbers fit together

$253MWhat the City’s own consultant priced the full renovation scope at, in today’s dollars. One-time cost. Verified
The same scope, escalated and repeated over 20 years: $505M. Inside it: ~$164M genuine repair, ~$341M revenue-generating upgrades.

$573MThe public construction budget in the July 17 draft: State $365M + City $120M + County $88M. One-time, nominal. Verified
This is the current number. The earlier “$600M ask” you may have seen was the floated figure this draft replaced.

~$99MEverything the public is priced to receive back across the 20-year lease: the $3M-a-year payment, growing 5% a year. 20-year total. Calculated

$1.02–1.11BThe all-in public commitment over 20 years once bonds and debt service, the City and County shares, and future arena spending are counted. Modeled
The balance sheet’s ~$850M–1B modeled core sits inside this range.

~$2.5BWhat the building hands the operator over the 20-year lease (~$100M+ a year), from an arena rented for $1 a year. Modeled
Not the $2.5M-per-year maintenance reserve — that is a separate recommended term.

$1.1–1.2BWhat a market-standard package would return the public over 20 years, priced line by line against 17 peer deals. Calculated

$4.25BWhat the franchise sold for in 2026. Verified

Verified primary document · Calculated arithmetic from verified inputs · Modeled assumptions disclosed & adjustable. Every line’s paper trail: the Public Balance Sheet.

The renovation deal in 20 seconds

Start with the four headline numbers. Then compare how quickly each side’s money comes back and where every priced arena dollar goes. Tap any explanation only when you want the math.

Public construction money$573MState, City, and proposed County cash up front.

More public arena money~$275MTicket fees, parking, and other public revenue sent back into the building over 20 years.

Fixed ownership construction money$0The July draft requires no set private construction check.

Cash paid back to the public~$99MA scheduled payment spread across the full 20-year lease.

At the current pace, how long would it take each side’s money to match?

Dundon & ownership 2–4 years

Modeled gross arena revenue reaches the full ~$99M scheduled payment in roughly 2–4 operating years.

The public 170–200 years*

At roughly $5M a year coming back, matching the ~$850M–1B public commitment would take 170–200 years. The payments stop after year 20.

What this time comparison does — and does not — mean

This is a scale check, not a profit or investment-return calculation. The ownership side uses modeled gross arena revenue before operating costs, taxes, financing, and capital costs. The public side uses the draft’s direct scheduled cash payment. The renovated building, team retention, and public use are real non-cash benefits and are scored separately.

Who puts cash into the arena deal?

Up-front renovation money plus the next 20 years of scheduled arena cash.

9¢ ownership — the full ~$99M scheduled payment91¢ public — ~$850M–1B for construction and future arena spending

What is counted

This is the cash burden of the renovation deal, not a construction-only split. The ownership payment is scheduled over 20 years; the public side includes $573M up front plus roughly $275M of public arena revenue scheduled back into the building and other modeled public cash.

For every $1 of priced arena money, who gets to use it?

All arena revenue and payments we can responsibly price across 20 years.

70¢ ownership keeps22¢ public revenue — but it must go back into the arena8¢ public can keep

What is counted

The base model totals the ~$99M scheduled public payment, ~$275M of public revenue recycled into the building, and about ~$0.9B in modeled ownership-side arena revenue and tax value. It excludes the team’s gate, media, and league revenue; operating costs; the building’s retained value; and closed-book estimates shown later.

The public supplies 91¢ of the deal’s modeled cash — but can keep only 8¢ of each priced arena dollar. Ownership supplies 9¢ and keeps about 70¢.

If our estimates are low or high, does the story change?

No. Only three estimates move: naming rights, the property-tax break, and the arena operating business. The public numbers in the July draft stay fixed. The cards show how each priced arena dollar is divided.

Low estimate61¢kept by ownership

28¢ public revenue goes back into the building; 10¢ is cash the public can keep.

Base estimate71¢kept by ownership

21¢ public revenue goes back into the building; 8¢ is cash the public can keep.

High estimate78¢kept by ownership

16¢ public revenue goes back into the building; 6¢ is cash the public can keep.

See the dollar totals and today’s-money calculation

Low estimateOwnership $595M · public revenue sent back to arena $275M · public cash kept $99M.
Today’s value at 7%: $310M / $133M / $47M.

Base estimateOwnership $913M · public revenue sent back to arena $275M · public cash kept $99M.
Today’s value at 7%: $472M / $133M / $47M.

High estimateOwnership $1.33B · public revenue sent back to arena $275M · public cash kept $99M.
Today’s value at 7%: $688M / $133M / $47M.

Twenty-year totals are nominal checks or gross flows. Present value discounts each annual stream to today at 7%. Download the model inputs as CSV or read the City term sheet.

The public cost gap

How much public support is not covered by ownership payments?

Take the modeled public commitment to the arena deal and subtract the cash payment scheduled back to public jurisdictions:

Modeled public commitment~$850M–1B

Ownership payments− ~$99M

Not covered by those payments~$750–900M

Ownership’s scheduled payments cover only about 10–12¢ of each modeled public dollar.

What this number leaves out

This is a direct-payment comparison, not a complete benefit-cost study. The public still owns the renovated building and receives non-cash value from team retention and public use. Those benefits are real, but they do not pay debt service. The open policy question is whether the lease should also provide market-tested rent, tax-equivalent payments, private construction money, or a share of the new revenue the renovation creates.

How much should legitimately go to the operator? A lot — and nobody here argues otherwise. Running the arena is his business: an operator should keep its operating profits, and every dollar of return on capital he actually invests. What a fair deal adds is only what every landlord and every taxing district already collects — rent for the building, a tax-equivalent payment, and a minority share of the new revenue that public money creates. Price the whole fair-deal package (~$1.0–1.2B over 20 years) and he still keeps his team’s entire ~$240M-a-year business — which nobody proposes to touch — plus an operator’s margin on the venue. The dispute was never whether he profits. It is whether the draft should directly repay only about 10–12 cents per public dollar committed.

Explore the full line-item ledger

◀ Dundon & ownership

Each line item — tap for the math

The public ▶

Priced streams · 20-year totals

The $3M-a-year payment (grows 5%/yr)

~$99M over 20 yrs Calculated

The one priced stream the public keeps outright — split between the County, the City, and Portland Public Schools. The draft calls it a property-tax offset: what it offsets is the red property-tax row below. Source: City term sheet.

How we got this number

The draft’s own payment formula: $3.0M in year one, growing 5% every year, for 20 years. Add the checks: $3.0M × (1.05²⁰ − 1) ÷ 0.05 = $99.2M. In today’s money: $57.1M (at a 5% discount rate), $47.2M (7%), $39.5M (9%). Source: the July 17 draft, “Property Tax Offset Payment.” No double-count with the property-tax row below: this row is money the public receives; that row is money it doesn’t. Net the two and the public lands between roughly even and ~$55M short by the county’s own formula — and $100M+ short at full appraisal equivalency. The year-by-year crossing math: the PILOT paper.

$99M

The 6% ticket fee

~$201M over 20 yrs Calculated

Paid by fans on every ticket. The City collects it — and the draft schedules it straight back into the building.

How we got this number

The draft’s own Exhibit D schedule lists the Moda user-fee deposit for each of 20 years. The lines sum to $201.1M — we did the addition; the schedule is the draft’s. Worth ~$97M in today’s money at a 7% discount rate.

$201M · recycled

Parking at Blazers games

~$46M over 20 yrs Calculated

City revenue — scheduled back into the building.

How we got this number

Same Exhibit D schedule, the Blazers-parking column: 20 annual lines summing to $46.4M (~$22M in today’s money at 7%).

$46M · recycled

Coliseum operating profit

~$20M over 20 yrs Calculated

City revenue — scheduled back into the building.

How we got this number

Same schedule, the City’s share of Coliseum (VMC) operating profit: sums to $19.7M (~$10M in today’s money).

$20M · recycled

Tourism (visitor-facility) money

~$8M over 20 yrs Calculated

Public tourism revenue — scheduled back into the building.

How we got this number

Same schedule, the visitor-facility allocation: sums to $7.84M (~$4M in today’s money). The four gold rows together are the draft’s own Exhibit D total: $275,000,016.

$8M · recycled

$110–175M

Arena naming rights, during the lease

~$110–175M over 20 yrs Modeled · floor $80M

The 1995 building’s name sells for ~$4M a year. Fiserv Forum’s signed deal was reported at ~$150M over 25 years (~$6M/yr), while the Bucks had reportedly targeted $7–10M/yr before the deal. The model uses $6–10M after renovation. The name becomes the City’s to sell only when the lease ends — outside this 20-year window. Signed-deal report · pre-deal target report.

How we got this number

The audited baseline for the current agreement is ~$4M a year — the price of naming the 1995 building. Held flat for 20 years, that’s the absolute floor: $80M. Assume the current deal runs through ~4 construction years, then a renovated-building re-rate of $6–10M/yr: 4 × $4M + 16 × $6–10M ≈ $110–175M. The low end matches the reported annualized value of Fiserv Forum’s signed deal; the high end matches the Bucks’ reported pre-deal target, rather than a signed value. Under the July draft, every dollar of it — floor or re-rate — is the ownership’s.

$85–155M

The property-tax break

~$85–155M over 20 yrs Modeled

What the building would pay if it weren’t exempt — ~$1.2–1.5M/yr today, $5.1–9.4M/yr once the $573M renovation is on the books. Source: County changed-property method.

How we got this number

Two phases. During construction (~4 years), the documented bill is ~$1.2–1.5M a year. After completion, Multnomah County’s own construction formula — added value × the county’s changed-property ratio × the levy rate, i.e. 1.3783% applied to $573M — puts the forgone bill at $5.1–9.4M a year depending on how much of the spend reaches the tax rolls. Adding it up: 4 × ~$1.35M + 16 × $5.1–9.4M ≈ $85–155M over the 20-year lease. Full appraisal equivalency would push it past $200M. The $3M payment (green row above) is the draft’s offset against this — its ~$99M covers the bottom of the range and falls ~$55M short of the top. The complete tier-by-tier method: the PILOT paper.

~$650M

Running the arena — the venue business

~$650M over 20 yrs Modeled · range $400M–1B

Concessions, concerts, and tenant income from a building he rents for $1 a year — the operating contract Portland could competitively bid. His team’s business — the ~$63M/yr Blazers gate, media rights, league money — is not counted anywhere in this table: it follows the team, and it’s legitimately his.

How we got this number

Built from the What He Makes decomposition, keeping only the operator-hat streams: concessions, food & drink and retail (~$24M/yr, range $14–37M) + concerts and non-Blazers events (~$8M/yr, range $5–11M) + tenant income from the WNBA Portland Fire (~$1–2M/yr) ≈ ~$33M/yr, range ~$20–50M. Over 20 years: ~$650M, range $400M–1B. Excluded to avoid double-counting: the Blazers’ gate (team revenue, not the operator’s), naming (its own row above), and the parking cut (its own row below). This is the contract the draft renews with no competitive bid — the market test is what would price it.

$1 a year

The closed books — useful estimates, clearly labeled

~$14–37M/yr

Concessions, food, drink & merchandise

~$280–740M / 20 yearsModeledactual books closed

Estimated net kept by the operator after the concessionaire’s share. Already inside the venue-business range above; never added again.

See the estimate

The arena revenue reconstruction estimates that fans spend roughly $34–74M a year on food, drink, and retail. Applying a 40–50% operator share produces roughly $14–37M a year, or ~$280–740M over 20 years before growth. The missing concession contract and revenue reports would replace this range with an actual number.

+$18–28M/yr

New suites, clubs & premium seating

~$290–450M after openingModeled16 post-construction years

The estimated increase from the public-funded premium build-out, not today’s existing suite revenue. The draft shares none of it.

See the estimate

The City’s renovation study assigns hundreds of millions to suites, clubs, hospitality, bars, and retail. The local bottom-up model estimates $18–28M a year of new premium-seat revenue once the work opens; 16 operating years yields roughly $290–450M. As a reasonableness check, Forbes estimates NBA teams averaged about $45M a year in total premium-seating revenue. This row counts only modeled renovation growth and is not added to the headline split.

~$5–15M/yr

Sponsorship, signs & plaza advertising

~$100–300M / 20 yearsWorking rangearena-only; naming excluded

The operator pays the City $15,000 a year for exclusive plaza advertising and vending rights. The revenue those rights produce is secret.

See the estimate

SponsorUnited reported $1.8B in NBA team sponsorship revenue in 2025–26 — roughly $60M per team across all sponsorship categories. Arena signs, plaza inventory, and local building partners are only part of that book. We use a deliberately broad $5–15M a year arena-only working range, excluding the separately counted arena name. This is a benchmark, not a claim about Moda Center’s actual books, and it is excluded from the headline totals.

$15K/yr

At least ~$1–3M/yr

Non-event parking cut & the Arena Garage

At least ~$20–60M / 20 yearsPartial estimateArena Garage adds more

The 25% non-event fee alone is estimated at ~$1–3M a year. The City-owned Arena Garage’s event revenue also goes to the operator, but its books are closed.

See the estimate

The contract verifies the 25% of gross non-event fee; the local parking reconstruction values that fee at roughly $1–3M a year. That makes ~$20–60M over 20 years a floor, not a total. The attached Arena Garage is separately treated as a “private parking facility,” so its event revenue stays with the operator. A fair-deal 30% public share was modeled at roughly $70M over the lease, implying a much larger gross parking pool, but the monthly facility reports are needed to divide it honestly.

75%

+$27–41M/yr

All new revenue created by the renovation

~$430–660M after openingModeled envelopenot added to the headline split

The core deal question: public money builds the new premium rooms, bars, retail, and event capacity; the July draft shares none of the added revenue.

See the estimate

The bottom-up renovation model estimates $27–41M a year in fresh revenue: premium seating ($18–28M), food-and-beverage margin ($3–6M), 8–15 added event nights, and a naming-rights re-rate. Across 16 post-construction operating years, that is roughly $430–660M. This envelope overlaps the premium, concession, event, and naming rows, so it is a summary — never an additional line to add.

Public keeps it Public collects it — then it’s spent back on the building Ownership keeps it Books closed — estimate shown, not added

The caveats — read before quoting

The biggest red line is an estimate. The ~$650M venue business is modeled from the What He Makes decomposition (~$33M/yr central, $20–50M range) — and deliberately excludes his team’s gate and media money. Strip it out entirely and the priced split is still $99M green against ~$195–330M red — and the closed books flow almost entirely red.
The naming line is a modeled re-rate. The floor is the audited ~$4M-a-year baseline held flat ($80M); the $110–175M range assumes the renovated building re-prices to $6–10M/yr. Fiserv Forum’s signed deal was reported at roughly $6M/yr annualized; $7–10M was a reported pre-deal target, not the signed value.
The striped rows still count for zero in the headline totals. We now show defensible working ranges for concessions, premium seating, sponsorship, parking, and renovation growth so readers can see the likely scale. Several ranges overlap, so never add them together. Actual contracts and revenue reports should replace the estimates.
These are 20-year totals in checks written, not today’s money. The draft’s own Exhibit D schedule is written that way, so the comparison is apples to apples; the today’s-money value of each stream is in the ledgers below.

Seven rules that stop the double-counting

Add a building, a payment stream, a legal claim, and a tax break together and you’ll count the same dollar three times. Seven rules keep the math honest — they’re why our totals come out smaller than the loudest ones you’ll hear.

Open the seven accounting checks

You can’t “give” someone what they already own

Portland already owns the arena, the land, the Coliseum, the garages. “The city keeps its own buildings” is not a gift from the owner.

Paying an old bill is not a new gift

Repairs already owed under the current lease can’t double as a “contribution” to the renovation.

Money from fans is not money from the owner

The 6% ticket fee and most parking dollars come out of fans’ pockets. When you buy a ticket, you’re the one contributing.

Public money spent on the building is a cost, not a return

The draft routes ~$275M of public revenue back into the building. That’s the public paying itself.

Don’t count the lock and the house separately

The stay-in-Portland guarantee protects the fees and repayments. Count what’s protected, or the protection — never both.

Good things go in their own column

Union jobs and community benefits are real — but they aren’t rent, and can’t fill an empty economics column.

Every number says how sure we are

Verified Calculated Modeled Unpriced — a guess repeated three times is still a guess.

VerifiedPrimary document, audited record, or appraisal.

CalculatedArithmetic from verified inputs.

ModeledAssumptions disclosed & adjustable.

UnpricedInsufficient evidence — records needed.

The full ledger — open any drawer

Every asset, cash stream, legal right, and giveaway in the deal — each with its evidence badge.

Already publicWhat Portland already ownsThe arena, Coliseum, garages, land, and development rights are the public’s starting position — not something returned by the new deal.>$1B arena replacement8 asset groupsMost still unpriced

Real, valuable — and none of it is a return from the 2026 deal, because the public already owns it. The $1 purchase price was lease structure, not value: building the arena new today would cost over $1 billion.

The public’s physical stake is enormous and largely unpriced by choice of the party holding the records. That silence is not neutral — it lets “the public brings $573M” stand in for “the public brings a billion-dollar building and $573M.”

Asset	Owner & status	Value
Moda Center arena & improvements	City-owned; every new improvement automatically becomes City property	New-build benchmark >$1B Modeled · acquired 2024 for $1 Verified · as-is / income value Unpriced
Arena site & Rose Quarter land	City-owned outright	Parcel-by-parcel appraisal required Unpriced
Kosei parcel	City-purchased 2024 (under part of Moda)	$7.13M negotiated on independent appraisals Verified
Veterans Memorial Coliseum	City-owned; run by Rip City Management (the operator)	City has put in >$54M (current renovation, paid with bonds) + $12.8M (2012–19) Verified · market value Unpriced · includes a ~40,000 sq ft underground exhibit hall
East / West / Arena garages, Benton Lot	City-owned public parking	What the garages actually earn, plus what the land could become — the books aren’t public Unpriced
Rose Quarter Plaza, sign pads & air rights	City land, in the leased premises	Civic space, plus real advertising and vending money Unpriced
Development parcels (Coliseum & transportation-bureau areas)	City land; operator holds option/consent rights	The land’s value, plus the value of the right to build on it Unpriced
Arena naming-rights reversion	Reverts to City at lease end	What the arena’s name will earn once it’s the City’s to sell Unpriced · a City asset, not the team’s

Already publicRevenue the public already receivesTicket fees, parking, Coliseum profit, and tourism money keep flowing — but the draft requires nearly all of it to be spent back on the arena.~$275M over 20 years~$133M today4 main streams

Two labels on every line: who pays it (mostly fans) and where it goes (mostly back into the building).

The draft’s own 20-year schedule (its “Exhibit D”) routes ~$275M of these public streams straight back into the building. Rule 4: that is the public paying itself — a cost dressed up as a contribution.

Stream (20-yr, from the July draft)	Who pays	Value
Moda ticket user fees (6%)	Event attendees (fans)	$201.1M over 20 years · worth ~$97M in today’s money Calculated
Blazers-event parking	Attendees	$46.4M over 20 years · ~$22M in today’s money Calculated
Coliseum (VMC) net operating profit	Coliseum operations	$19.7M over 20 years · ~$10M in today’s money Calculated
Visitor-facility allocation (tourism money)	Tourism revenue	$7.84M over 20 years · ~$4M in today’s money Calculated
→ Routed back into the building (“Exhibit D”)	Public → the building	$275.0M over 20 years · ~$133M in today’s money — a public cost, per Rule 4
Base arena rent	Operator	$1 a year — not a typo Verified
Plaza rent	Operator (for exclusive ad/vending rights)	$15,000 a year, inflation-adjusted ≈ $0.4M over 20 years Calculated
Project-name royalties · development-transfer share	Third parties / on transfer	City gets 50% of name royalties, and 25% of the price if development rights are ever sold Unpriced

Already in the contractRights the public should not give awayRepair duties, the stay-in-Portland promise, enforcement powers, and the prior dollar-for-dollar repair match all have value before a new deal is signed.Up to ~$164M repair claimStay covenantMatch at risk

A $100M “clawback” is not $100M in a bank. Three questions set its real value: Would it trigger? Would a court enforce it? Could the money be collected? Sticker price and honest answer, side by side.

Right / obligation	What it is	How to value it honestly
First-class maintenance (§10.2)	Operator’s standing repair duty	Sticker price: up to ~$164M claimed Modeled · what’s provably owed: Unpriced until inspection records come out · must be settled on its own — never quietly rolled into the new deal or relabeled as the owner’s “contribution.”
Arena capital repair & replacement	Tenant-borne under the lease	What the operator is on the hook to spend over the term Unpriced
Dollar-for-dollar repair match (in the 2024 deal)	Operator must match City capital spending	~$4.6M of Blazers fee-and-parking money in 2022–23 implies a similar match from the operator Calculated, illustrative
Repayment / clawback if NBA use ends	Recovers public contribution	Odds it’s ever triggered × what could actually be collected Modeled — never counted on top of the money it protects
Non-relocation (through Oct 11, 2030)	Bars moving or seeking to move without consent	What the public would actually lose in fees and payments if the team left Modeled — not the team’s $4B price tag, and not the $600M of regional activity
Court-enforcement powers	Enforcement & continuity	These make the other rights real: a court can order the team to stay, and any buyer inherits the promises. No separate dollar — they raise the value of everything above Modeled
Coliseum operating-loss cap	City’s share of losses is limited	Historically capped at ~$250K/yr — worth the losses the City avoids Modeled

New public costWhat the public puts into the dealConstruction cash is only the first line. The package also uses future public arena revenue, a tax break, state borrowing, and commercial rights.$573M up front~$275M future arena money$85–155M tax break

Not “Portland pays $573M and gets a lease” — it’s that plus decades of commercial rights, a property-tax break, and redirected state revenue. Unpriced only because the books are closed.

Given to the operator / spent	Source	Value
Public construction capital	State $365M + City $120M + County $88M	Up to $573M Verified · County share contested — commissioners are moving to cut it by ~$35M, down to ~$53M
Future public capital (Exhibit D)	City ~$275M + County ~$13.6M / 20 yrs	~$133M in today’s money Calculated (the draft’s own schedule)
Property-tax exemption (ORS 307.171)	City ownership triggers the break	~$1.2M/yr now Verified · $5.1–9.4M/yr once the renovation is on the tax rolls, by the county’s own formula Calculated · ~$85–155M over 20 years Modeled — full method: the PILOT paper
The state’s borrowing cost	Money redirected from the state’s General Fund	Raising the $365M takes $531–624M in total bond payments, ~$29.4M a year Verified (state fiscal office)
The ticket-fee giveback (§3.3)	City reimburses any ticket surcharge it imposes	Blocks Portland from ever keeping a per-ticket public fee — the value of that surrendered power: Unpriced
Commercial rights bundle	Granted in the lease	Naming/sponsorship, concessions, premium seating, plaza advertising, 25% of non-event parking, development option, a veto over city land sales, a regional non-compete, and the no-bid operating contract Unpriced

Ledger E · only what is new

What does the public get for its new money?

Ignore everything Portland already owns, already collects, or is already owed. On the July draft, the new-dollar exchange is simple:

Public support committed~$850M–1B

Construction plus future public arena money over the 20-year deal.

Fixed ownership construction money$0

No required private construction check appears in the July draft.

Scheduled cash back to the public~$99M

Worth roughly $40–57M today, spread over 20 years.

Public commitment~$850M–1B

Scheduled cash back~$99M

Not covered by deal payments~$750–900M

What the public puts in

$573M up-front construction capital.
~$275M of future public arena revenue scheduled back into the building.
~$85–155M property-tax break over 20 years; the exact overlap with the capital envelope is shown in the full model.
The State makes $531–624M in total bond payments to raise its $365M share.
Commercial rights listed in Ledger D.

What is genuinely new from ownership

~$99M scheduled cash payments across 20 years.
$0 fixed private construction money.
No share of renovation-created revenue.
No stated match for future public capital.
The existing repair claim is not separately priced.

Existing public value at risk

The asserted ~$164M repair claim.
The prior dollar-for-dollar repair match.
The future naming-rights reversion.
Land options and vetoes.
Portland’s power to keep a future ticket fee.

The July draft in one sentence

The public commits roughly $850M–1B; ownership commits no fixed construction money and schedules about $99M back over 20 years.

The stay-in-Portland protections and the renovated public building are real non-cash benefits. They should be judged on their own — not relabeled as rent, private construction money, or revenue sharing.

Why the ledgers stay separate: the public’s existing buildings and land belong in Ledger A; existing public revenue in B; existing contract rights in C; new public costs in D; and only genuinely new deal value here in E. That prevents the same asset or dollar from being counted twice.

The living scorecard — and where every ask comes from

Read each row left to right: what the 2024 bridge deal did, what the City’s July 17 draft does, and what a complete deal looks like. The last column is the proof this is not a wish list: every ask is copied from a deal somebody has already signed — the state’s own study of peer arenas, this same ownership’s Raleigh contract, or Portland’s own 2024 lease. When the final agreement lands, we score it as a new column — so anyone can see whether a term that appeared in a press release survived into the signed lease.

The term, in plain English	2024 bridge Existing agreement	July 17 draft Current proposal	A complete deal Recommended term	Where that comes from
The owner’s own money toward construction	$0	$0 required	~$245M — covering the money-making spaces (suites, clubs, premium)	Peer ownerships paid 18–62% of renovation capital in the state’s own comparables. This ask ≈ 43% of the budget — mid-range, not maximal.
What the operator pays each year to use the building	$1 a year	$3M/yr tax offset (~$99M over 20 yrs)	$4.5M/yr rent, plus a payment equal to normal property taxes	$4.5M/yr is the rent this same ownership signed in Raleigh. Peers in the state’s study pay rent ($1–2M/yr) on top of other terms.
A share of the new revenue the renovation creates	None	None	A share of premium-seat, naming, and parking money — above today’s baseline only	Orlando — the all-public build in the state’s study — shares naming and suite revenue. Public money builds the rooms; the public shares what the new rooms earn.
Matching money for future repairs	Dollar-for-dollar	Dropped — ~$275M public, no match	Dollar-for-dollar match restored	This is Portland’s own 2024 deal. This ownership already signed it once.
The repairs already owed (up to ~$164M claimed)	Building up	Not addressed — could be quietly erased	Kept alive in one sentence, and credited to the public	Not a new ask at all — just don’t tear up an existing bill.
The promise to stay in Portland	Through Oct 2030	Strong — a court can order the team to stay; money comes back if it leaves	Kept word for word through signing	Already in the City’s own draft. The only ask: don’t water it down.
How long the team commits	To Oct 2030	≥20 years after construction ends	At least as long as the public is still paying off the bonds	Simple matching: the team’s promise shouldn’t expire before the public’s debt does.
The construction budget	Matched capital	$573M cap — but the itemized budget page is blank	A line-item budget, plus a guaranteed maximum price from the builder	Standard on any project this size. No bank would fund a blank budget — the public shouldn’t either.

“Isn’t asking for naming-rights money a reach? Cities almost never get it.”

Look at who paid for the building. When the ownership pays for most of the construction — Milwaukee, Cleveland — the ownership keeps the naming money, and that’s fair. When the public pays for everything, the economics get shared: Orlando, the all-public build in the state’s own study, collects a revenue share from naming rights and suite sales. Portland is being asked to fund the all-public model — so Orlando is the honest comparable. And the ask is smaller than it sounds: the operator keeps selling the name; the public shares only in the increase above today’s ~$4M-a-year baseline — the increase its own $573M creates. One more thing: under Portland’s existing 2024 contract, the arena’s naming rights already come back to the City when the lease ends. That part isn’t a demand. It’s already signed.

The complete-deal column is the fair-deal package — every dollar counted once, ~$1.0–1.2B over 20 years, priced line-by-line on the Fair-Deal Terms and scored against this draft on the City’s Draft, Scored.

What the public still isn’t allowed to see

Much of this balance sheet is marked Unpriced for one reason: the records haven’t been released. Until they are, the public cannot price what it already owns or what it’s being asked to give — and no one should vote to commit $573M against a balance sheet the public isn’t allowed to read.

The 18 withheld record sets — see the full list

The full VMC Operating Agreement and every amendment
The complete Entertainment Complex ground lease & rent schedule
The 2024 Purchase & Sale Agreement, title report, surveys, appraisals
A parcel-level Rose Quarter ownership map with tax-lot numbers
City insurance statements of value (arena, VMC, garages, plaza)
The Arena Capital Expenditures Plan and actual matching history
Facility-level parking revenue, expense & capital records
The current Moda naming-rights agreement and royalty statements
VMC event-level revenue, rents, and net operating profit
Plaza advertising, vending, and event revenue
Existing development notices, declarations, master plans, appraisals
Current and historical property-tax records for the parcels
The inventory of operator-owned vs. City-owned fixtures
Insurance, casualty, condemnation, environmental schedules
All subleases & management contracts affecting public revenue
Public debt schedules, financing costs, pledged-revenue waterfalls
Any §10.2 first-class-maintenance compliance reports or notices
The NDA and audit protocols governing what the City can disclose

Sources & methodology — every number’s paper trail

A public-interest balance sheet, not an appraisal. Every figure carries an evidence badge; the seven rules govern what may be added to what. We re-score every line as the MOU and the definitive agreements appear — and correct anything the documents contradict.

Verified against primary documents

~$4.25B sale of the Blazers to the Dundon-led group
$1 arena purchase + $7.13M Kosei parcel (2024, Ordinance 191857)
Coliseum: >$54M + $12.8M of City investment
$573M stack: $365M state / $120M city / $88M county — county contested; Board vote moved to Aug 6
$531–624M state debt service, ~$29.4M/yr (Legislative Fiscal Office, SB 1501/SB 5701)
~$1.2M/yr property-tax exemption (ORS 307.171)
City Facility Assessment: $482M as-is / ~$600M renovation / >$1B new arena

Calculated — the arithmetic

$3M payment growing 5%/yr × 20 years = $99.2M in checks; worth $57.1M / $47.2M / $39.5M today at 5% / 7% / 9% discount rates
“Today’s money” means exactly that: future payments discounted back to the present
Every stream total is a column sum of the draft’s own 20-year Exhibit D schedule ($275,000,016)
Post-renovation tax break: the county’s construction formula — 1.3783% of $573M = $7.9M/yr at full realization, $5.1–9.4M/yr across realization scenarios — tier by tier on the PILOT paper

The scorecard’s receipts

$4.5M/yr rent: this ownership’s own Raleigh (Lenovo Center) schedule
Naming-and-suite revenue share: Orlando, in the state’s July 9 comparables summary
Naming re-rate range: Fiserv Forum’s reported ~$6M/yr signed value and $7–10M/yr pre-deal target; floor held at Moda’s audited ~$4M baseline
18–62% peer private capital: the state’s own set, Cleveland discrepancy flagged on the City’s Draft, Scored

The public brings the building,
the land, and the money.

So who keeps what the building earns? Under the July draft, almost all of it flows to the ownership side — the split above shows it line by line. Council can fill in the public’s column before August 12. Tell them to.

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