Where the deal stands
One page for councilors, reporters, and anyone catching up: the status, the numbers that matter, the draft’s score against a market deal, what is still unknown, and every source document. Everything here links to its evidence.
Status
- Stage
- The City’s first draft term sheet is on paper — published July 17, 2026.
- Next decision
- August 12, 2026 — City Council votes on the term sheet.
- What that vote does
- Sets the terms the final lease is drafted from. What isn’t in the term sheet rarely appears later.
- Last updated
- July 25, 2026
- July 17 — The City’s draft term sheet lands: $573M public budget, a $3M/yr tax offset, strong non-relocation language, no rent and no private construction requirement. Scored line by line →
- July 16 — Multnomah County’s reset letter puts its $88M share in writing.
- July 9 — The State’s own comparables summary documents what peer cities got: 18–52% private capital, rent, naming shares.
How the numbers fit together
Different figures answer different questions. These are the seven that carry the argument — each with its provenance.
How these numbers fit together
The same scope, escalated and repeated over 20 years: $505M. Inside it: ~$164M genuine repair, ~$341M revenue-generating upgrades.
This is the current number. The earlier “$600M ask” you may have seen was the floated figure this draft replaced.
The balance sheet’s ~$850M–1B modeled core sits inside this range.
Not the $2.5M-per-year maintenance reserve — that is a separate recommended term.
Verified primary document · Calculated arithmetic from verified inputs · Modeled assumptions disclosed & adjustable. Every line’s paper trail: the Public Balance Sheet.
The draft, scored
The July 17 draft, measured against the 15-term fair-deal standard — every term sourced to a deal somebody already signed:
The protections converged: the stay-in-Portland covenant is strong and court-enforceable. The economics did not: the draft’s one priced return is the $3M-a-year offset. Every term, before/draft/must-appear →
Who pays, who collects
The public supplies 91¢ of the deal’s modeled cash and can keep about 8¢ of each priced arena dollar; ownership supplies 9¢ and keeps about 70¢. Modeled public commitment ~$850M–1B; fixed ownership construction money $0; scheduled cash back ~$99M. The full balance sheet, badge by badge →
What a responsible yes requires
- The lease, published. Cost basis, revenue waterfall, and ROI model public before the vote — not after.
- The law’s own review, done. SB 1501 §6(2)(a) orders an expert deal-terms review during this negotiation. It has not surfaced.
- A market test. The operating contract competitively priced — the Blazers stay the tenant in every scenario. How →
- Market-range economics. Private capital, rent, and a revenue share inside the peer range — not $0, $1/yr, and none.
- Protections that survive drafting. The covenant, the repair claim, and audit rights intact through the amended & restated lease. The checklist →
Where Council stands
Twelve councilors vote on August 12. None has yet committed, on the record, to the checklist above. Ask yours to: it takes two minutes →
- Candace AvalosDistrict 1 · not yet on record
- Jamie DunphyDistrict 1 · not yet on record
- Loretta SmithDistrict 1 · not yet on record
- Elana Pirtle-GuineyDistrict 2 · not yet on record
- Sameer KanalDistrict 2 · not yet on record
- Dan RyanDistrict 2 · not yet on record
- Angelita MorilloDistrict 3 · not yet on record
- Tiffany Koyama LaneDistrict 3 · not yet on record
- Steve NovickDistrict 3 · not yet on record
- Olivia ClarkDistrict 4 · not yet on record
- Mitch GreenDistrict 4 · not yet on record
- Eric ZimmermanDistrict 4 · not yet on record
The amendments on the table
Five one-sentence fixes, each priced and sourced on the Fair-Deal Terms, with drafting language in the redline:
- A private capital line. Ownership funds the revenue-generating scope (~$245M ≈ 43% of budget — mid-range among peers).
- Rent, separate from the tax offset. $4.5M/yr — the rent this same ownership signed in Raleigh.
- A formula PILOT. Greatest-of-three: the certified floor, the county’s own construction formula ($5.1–9.4M/yr), or appraised equivalency. Method →
- A share of the new revenue. A minority public share of premium, naming, and parking money above today’s audited baseline.
- Nothing quietly erased. One sentence preserving the ~$164M first-class repair claim, plus audit rights with copies.
Still not public
No one — including Council — can price the deal without these. Until they surface, the balance sheet marks them Unpriced:
- The concession contract and venue revenue reports — the operator’s actual books.
- The Arena Garage monthly facility reports — who really earns the parking money.
- The naming-rights agreement and its renovation re-rate.
- Suite and premium-seating revenue — the money the public build-out creates.
- The itemized construction budget behind the $573M cap — the draft’s budget page is blank.
The documents
- Jul 17, 2026The City’s draft term sheet — scored line by line
- Jul 9, 2026The State’s PFM comparables summary — six NBA peers’ funding splits
- 2026The Fair-Deal Term Sheet (PDF) — the campaign’s benchmark, priced term by term
- 2024Ordinance 191857 and the executed bridge lease: Operating Lease · Exclusive Site Agreement
- DataThe balance-sheet dataset (CSV) · the councilor print pack
What happens next
- Aug 12, 2026 · the term-sheet voteCouncil sets the terms. The last cheap moment to fix the economics.
- Fall 2026 · lease draftingThe term sheet becomes the amended & restated lease. Watchlist terms live or die here.
- Dec 17, 2026 · the final-lease voteCouncil votes the definitive documents. Both votes take public testimony. Get the hearing alert →
- After signing · the bondsState bonds issue only after the City signs — that sequence is the public’s leverage, in statute.
Page changelog
- July 25, 2026 — Page launched. Status, score, and numbers reflect the July 17 draft term sheet.
The terms get set August 12. After that, this page just keeps score.
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